With falling demand leading to a disrupted supply chain, this will trigger a global economic recession.
On a positive side, with a strong monetary and fiscal policy responses already under the way, this could set the stage for a second-half rebound.
In the last week, the fight against the coronavirus pandemic around the world has significantly intensified. Most governments are already in state of emergency and companies still able to operate are initiating more stringent social-distancing measures to contain the spread of the outbreak. However, the economic damage to the global economy could be significant and already irreversible.
Many uncertainties lie ahead, but if we assume that that the rate of new infections for coronavirus will peak in May, the bulk of the economic pain could hopefully be concentrated in the first half of 2020.
We are already seeing an aggressive policy response across the world to support businesses and workers, maintain liquidity in markets and inject stimulus to create the necessary conditions for a more robust recovery from this shock to the global economic system.
What is the way ahead for us now? If the predictions prove correct that new confirmed cases will peak in May, in this scenario, given the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy responses in the pipeline, we would expect economic growth to start recovering in the third quarter of this year. The great risk to this forecast is whether the disruption to economy will continue past the second quarter.
With the experience of the 2008 financial crisis still fresh in our minds, that devasted the world economy and led to the Great Recession, policymakers around the world have mounted a vigorous defense in fight against this novel coronavirus. With many uncertainties lying ahead it is clear that nations, governments and industries have come together across the world to fight the impact of COVID-19.